US Says Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Unlikely Before 2028

US: The United States is a federal republic whose government and intelligence agencies assess foreign security threats and support Taiwan’s ability to deter coercion. In the reported assessment, US officials judge that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, citing delays in China’s military readiness and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election. 2027 benchmark: The 2027 readiness benchmark is generally understood as a target for Chinese military preparedness rather than a confirmed invasion date. China strategy: Recent US assessments say Beijing still prefers to achieve control over Taiwan without using force, while continuing to develop military capabilities for a possible conflict. US intelligence assessment: The US intelligence community reported in March that Chinese leaders did not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and had no fixed timetable for achieving unification.