US-Iran ceasefire prediction holds at 90% through Sept 30

US-Iran ceasefire: The US-Iran ceasefire refers to an attempted halt in hostilities between the United States and Iran, with negotiations also involving issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. Recent reporting indicates that the ceasefire framework remains disputed, with the United States rejecting Iran’s latest short-term proposal while indirect talks continue. Negotiations: Indirect US-Iran communications have resumed through mediators, with Iran seeking an end to hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed nuclear negotiations. Ceasefire outlook: Recent reporting describes the ceasefire process as fragile: Iran has proposed a short-term roadmap, while President Donald Trump has rejected the latest proposal and the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Prediction market: The source text presents probabilities for the ceasefire remaining in place through specified dates; these are market-implied estimates rather than independently verified probabilities or confirmed diplomatic commitments.