The Conference Board reports US Leading Economic Index flat in September
Summary
In September 2026, the Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US remained unchanged at 99.6, following a slight decline in August. This stability, coupled with an improving six-month growth rate, suggests ongoing economic expansion without immediate recession signals. Notably, gains in the interest rate spread and manufacturing hours were offset by declines in consumer expectations and stock prices. With a projected real GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2026, the outlook indicates that the economy is increasingly supported by business investment rather than consumer spending.
Tokens
$SPX
Analysis
The Conference Board: The Conference Board is a member-driven, nonpartisan not-for-profit think tank that delivers trusted insights on business, economic, and market trends. It publishes composite indexes including the Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG) to help signal turning points in the business cycle. It issued the September 2026 US LEI report, which remained flat and offered analysis on the economy's near-term direction. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica: Justyna Zabinska-La Monica serves as Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. She provided expert commentary interpreting the latest US LEI data release and its implications for economic momentum. Her analysis noted offsetting contributions across components and a modest improvement in the index's six-month growth trajectory. Business Cycle: The US LEI showed stability in its latest reading with an improving six-month growth rate, indicating continued economic expansion without a recession signal. Economic Outlook: The Conference Board anticipates ongoing real GDP growth through 2027, with the economy becoming less reliant on consumer spending and more supported by business investment.
Categories
macropolitics