S&P 500 futures outperform 10Y Treasury note futures by 23%
Summary
US Treasuries have significantly underperformed equities, with S&P 500 futures surpassing 10-year Treasury note futures by 23.3 percentage points over the last six months, the largest margin since 2021. During this period, S&P 500 futures rose 17.6%, nearing all-time highs, while 10-year Note futures fell 5.7% to their lowest since June 2007. This divergence coincides with the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield rising above 5%, reflecting substantial bond-market selling, as economic activity has remained robust, renewing expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation.
Tokens
$SPX$TNX
Analysis
S&P 500 futures: S&P 500 futures are standardized contracts used to gain exposure to the expected value of the S&P 500 stock-market index. In the reported period, they represent the equity side of an unusually strong divergence, with stocks remaining near record levels even as Treasury yields rose and bond prices weakened. 10Y Treasury note futures: 10Y Treasury note futures are contracts linked to the value of U.S. government debt with a ten-year maturity; their prices generally move inversely to ten-year Treasury yields. They are relevant because the recent rise in the benchmark ten-year yield to levels last seen in 2007 has driven pronounced weakness in these futures while equities held up comparatively well. Macro driver: Higher Treasury yields have been associated with stronger-than-expected economic activity and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain or raise interest rates to contain persistent inflation. Equity resilience: Recent reporting indicates that Treasury-market volatility has not fully spilled over into equities, with the S&P 500 able to post gains even as bond losses intensified. Bond-market pressure: The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield recently moved above five percent and reached its highest level since 2007, reflecting broad selling across the Treasury curve.
Categories
macropoliticsrwa
Related sources
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260926105/why-bond-market-volatility-hasnt-spilled-over-into-stocks
- https://pro.thestreet.com/market-commentary/stocks-tumble-as-yields-surge
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/treasury-yields-stocks-investors.html
- https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-futures-attempt-recovery-ahead-inflation-report-2026-09-10/
- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/
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- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/bond-selloff-stock-boom-rebalancing.html
- https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---stocks-slip-as-the-ten-year-hits-a-2007-high---24-september-2026-24092026
- https://idahobusinessreview.com/2026/09/23/us-stocks-fall-10-year-treasury-yield-highest-2007/
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202609151194/stock-futures-retreat-10-year-treasury-yield-holds-above-5-as-investors-await-fed-decision
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- https://www.cmegroup.com/videos/2026/09/17/e-mini-s-p-500-futures-rebound-as-treasury-yields-pull-back-9-1.html
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- https://www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-divergence-deepens-as-treasury-yields-surge-200688365
- https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-09092026-12112269