Poll predicts US crude oil average price of $83.90 per barrel in 2026
Summary
A recent poll indicates that US crude oil prices are projected to average $83.90 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $80.20 in August. This increase is driven by ongoing supply and shipping risks in the Middle East, despite facing limitations from weaker demand in China. Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration anticipates that domestic crude production will hit a record high in 2026, which may help to alleviate some price pressures by increasing supply in the market.
Tokens
$CL
Analysis
US crude oil: US crude oil primarily refers to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main American benchmark used to price domestically produced crude. The news concerns a revised analyst-poll forecast that raises the expected 2026 average for US crude, while recent supply disruptions and elevated global inventories have contributed to a firmer price outlook. US production: The US Energy Information Administration expects domestic crude production to reach a record level in 2026, which could moderate prices as additional supply comes online. Market outlook: Recent official forecasts also moved higher for 2026, with the EIA citing falling global inventories and continuing constraints on Middle East exports. Forecast drivers: The higher outlook reflects persistent Middle East supply and shipping risks, although weaker Chinese demand is limiting the potential upside.
Categories
macropolitics
Related sources
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/?rid=24307622
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf?769=?769=
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125
- https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/us-crude-oil-inventories-up-07-in-week-ending-sept-18/59821
- https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55404072/eia-sees-brent-near-90-bbl-in-second-half-2026-amid-middle-east-disruptions
- https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/us-eia-raises-oil-price-forecasts-amid-middle-east-supply-disruptions/59514
- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/oil-hold-above-80-barrel-middle-east-supply-risks-persist-2026-08-31/
- https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/crude-enters-week-near-100-hormuz-talks-set-monday-2026-09-14
- https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026
- https://www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/asia-pacific/oil-hold-above-80-barrel-middle-east-supply-risks-persist-2026-08-31/
- https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/finance/us-crude-oil-inventories-down-02-in-week-ending-sept-11/59668
- https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/10/short-term-energy-outlook-september-2026
- https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/09/global-economic-outlook-september-2026
- https://capital.com/en-int/analysis/oil-price-forecast-2025-2030
- https://www.ief.org/_resources/files/news/comparative-analysis-of-monthly-reports-on-the-oil-market/september-2026/ief-comparative-analysis-09-2026.pdf