Morgan Stanley forecasts $2.9T in global data center capex through 2028

Meta: Meta Platforms operates large-scale AI and data center operations as part of its core infrastructure strategy. The company has structured projects like the Hyperion campus in Louisiana through joint ventures and special purpose vehicles that keep significant debt off its balance sheet while retaining lease obligations and residual value guarantees. This news examines how Meta’s financing approach exemplifies the broader pattern of private credit exposure tied to short-lived GPU collateral. PIMCO: PIMCO is a leading global fixed-income investment manager active in anchoring large-scale bond issuances. It participated as an anchor investor in the Hyperion data center bonds. In the reported deals, PIMCO’s involvement illustrates the private credit market’s role in funding AI buildouts structured off corporate balance sheets. Nvidia: Nvidia designs and supplies the GPUs that power modern AI training and inference workloads. The company has extended residual value guarantees on leases for major AI operators, including commitments tied to OpenAI facilities. This news positions Nvidia’s guarantees as a key private backstop within the concentrated risk profile of data center credit. OpenAI: OpenAI develops advanced AI models and maintains extensive data center lease commitments supported by partner guarantees. The organization has engaged with policymakers on industrial capacity support and has structured leases involving residual value guarantees from suppliers such as Nvidia. This news connects OpenAI’s infrastructure financing to the systemic risk chain that may ultimately require sovereign backing. Oracle: Oracle provides cloud infrastructure and leases data center capacity for its operations. It recently issued a force majeure notice on the Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico, affecting rent obligations and related financing. This development is cited as an early signal of potential stress in the data center credit structures described in the news. Blue Owl: Blue Owl Capital manages private credit and equity funds focused on infrastructure and alternative investments. Funds managed by the firm hold substantial equity stakes in data center joint ventures, including the Hyperion project with Meta and the Stack Infrastructure assets leased to Oracle. The news highlights Blue Owl’s role in originating and holding the equity layer of these off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure deals. Alex Karp: Alex Karp is the co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies, known for his contrarian views that treat the technology industry and government as interconnected systems. He holds a doctorate in social theory and co-authored the 2025 book The Technological Republic, which advocates for closer collaboration between software leaders and the state while preserving space for ideological debate. In the context of this news, his recent public statements on CNBC about nationalizing frontier AI labs due to massive liabilities extend logically to the private credit financing of data center infrastructure built around those labs. Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley is a major global investment bank that provides research, underwriting, and advisory services across capital markets. Its analysts have modeled large-scale data center financing needs and served as the sole bookrunner on specific deals such as the Hyperion bond. In this news, the bank’s forecasts highlight the shift of AI infrastructure funding toward private credit and off-balance-sheet vehicles. Financing Shift: Demand coverage on hyperscaler bond issuances has declined markedly through 2026, accelerating the movement of AI data center funding into private credit and special purpose vehicles. Credit Market Signals: Data center bond issuance in 2026 shows a sharp rise in below-investment-grade ratings compared with the prior year, with spreads widening on both construction debt and hyperscaler credit. Infrastructure Policy: The White House’s March 2026 Ratepayer Protection Pledge and the Department of Energy’s opening of federal sites to data centers reflect growing federal recognition of compute facilities as strategic national assets.