Mohammed bin Salman faces greater internal risks than Houthi attacks

by@zerohedge

Summary

In a recent escalation of conflict, Ansarallah launched a third attack on Riyadh International Airport, resulting in the deaths of 12 people and injuries to over 300, highlighting the internal vulnerabilities of Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman's leadership. The persistent military action from Yemen, coupled with significant civilian casualties, has exacerbated pressures on President Trump to respond as midterm elections approach. However, analysts suggest that the real threat to MbS comes not from external attacks but from internal dissent arising from his centralized control. This approach has weakened traditional tribal relationships and fostered potential alignments among tribes like the Shammar and Anizzah, who feel marginalized in the decision-making process and economic distribution under the current regime.

Analysis

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is a Gulf monarchy whose economy centers on oil production and whose leadership pursues economic diversification. The news frames the kingdom as increasingly exposed to infrastructure strikes and internal divisions, with its ruling family employing divide-and-rule tactics in the military to counter coup risks amid the Yemen conflict. Edward Luttwak: Edward Luttwak is a military strategist and author specializing in coups, strategy, and international security. He is referenced in the news for analyzing how Saudi Arabia's fragmented military command structure reflects long-standing internal coup fears rather than preparedness against Houthi or external threats. Mohammed bin Salman: Mohammed bin Salman serves as Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, overseeing major policy and security decisions. In the context of this news, his centralization of power and push for Vision 2030 projects are described as eroding traditional tribal and religious alliances, heightening internal risks of tribal realignment or military discontent over external threats from AnsarAllah attacks. Conflict Nature: AnsarAllah draws from a broad coalition including various Islamic schools and social elements, limiting the effectiveness of prior sectarian narratives in Saudi positioning. Tribal Relations: Centralized decision-making under current leadership has diminished traditional tribal roles in policy and revenue sharing, fostering reported realignments among groups like the Shammar and Anizzah. Internal Dynamics: Saudi Arabia's ruling family has long used geographic separation and princely oversight of military branches to mitigate risks of internal military revolt.

Categories

predictionspredictions:geopoliticsmacropolitics
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