Middle East oil flow nears pre-war levels amid US support

by@BBCWorld

Summary

Oil flow from the Middle East has nearly returned to pre-Iran war levels, reaching 92% of its baseline by the end of September, despite ongoing restrictions imposed by Iran on vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This recovery in oil transportation follows increased military assistance from the US Navy, which has supported shipping routes since mid-June, and has led to a significant rise in the use of alternative shipping methods, such as overland pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers. Specifically, about 40% of the oil exported in September bypassed the strait using pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. However, the situation remains precarious due to a heightened risk of Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, which have surged to their highest levels in months, questioning the sustainability of current oil export strategies.

Analysis

Iran: Iran is a Middle Eastern country whose actions have significantly impacted global oil transit routes. In this news, it continues to restrict vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz and has faced a US naval blockade that halted its oil exports. Kpler: Kpler is a maritime intelligence firm specializing in tracking global oil and tanker movements. It supplied the core data showing Middle East oil flows returning close to pre-war levels through multiple bypass strategies. BBC Verify: BBC Verify is the BBC's fact-checking and analysis unit. It examined satellite imagery confirming ship-to-ship oil transfers occurring off the coast of Oman. Naveen Das: Naveen Das is a senior oil analyst at Kpler specializing in energy market flows. He analyzed the sustainability of current oil transit methods and described increased pipeline use as likely becoming the new normal. US Military: The US Military provides naval and air support to commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions. It has assisted an increasing number of vessels in recent months with warnings, intercepts, and protection against threats. Martin Kelly: Martin Kelly is a senior intelligence analyst at EOS Risk Group focusing on maritime security. He provided expert commentary on US military assistance to ships and ongoing risks from Iranian attacks. EOS Risk Group: EOS Risk Group is a security firm providing intelligence on maritime and geopolitical risks. Its analyst contributed insights into US support operations and vulnerabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. United Against Nuclear Iran: United Against Nuclear Iran is a US-based advocacy and monitoring organization tracking Iranian shipping and sanctions compliance. It reported on the status of empty Iran-flagged tankers stranded due to the US blockade. Oil Transit Adaptation: Gulf oil exporters have shifted significant volumes to overland pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing Security Risks: Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the region reached their highest level in months despite US military presence.

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