Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels amid attacks
Summary
Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels on multiple days in late September, despite escalating attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by Reuters. Provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler indicated that exports exceeded 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept. 24 and Sept. 27-29. This increase follows a seven-day moving average of 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct. 1, slightly above the average of 18 million barrels per day prior to the US-Israeli war with Iran that began in February 2025. Concurrently, liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait also peaked in September, highlighting ongoing energy trade in the face of maritime threats.
Analysis
Kpler: Kpler is a data analytics firm specializing in energy commodity markets and ship-tracking services for trade flows. The company supplied provisional shipping data showing Middle East crude oil export levels in late September and early October. Kazimah III: Kazimah III is a very large crude carrier operating in international shipping routes. The vessel was struck by an unknown projectile on October 1 while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire but with the crew safely evacuated. Maritime Trade Operations agency: The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency monitors maritime security and issues advisories on incidents affecting commercial shipping. It has documented at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2. LNG Trade: Liquefied natural gas cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly total in September since earlier in the year. Energy Exports: Middle East crude oil shipments have continued despite ongoing maritime threats in a key transit chokepoint. Maritime Incidents: Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have persisted into early October, coinciding with a partial recovery in export volumes.
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macropolitics