Mantic raises $25M for superhuman forecasting led by Radical Ventures
by@Reuters
Summary
AI startup Mantic has successfully raised $25 million in seed funding, led by Radical Ventures, following its victory in the recent Metaculus Cup forecasting tournament where it outperformed human participants for the first time. This London-based company, co-founded by Toby Shevlane in 2024 after his tenure at Google DeepMind, has developed advanced AI models capable of making highly accurate predictions across various domains, including political and cultural events. Mantic's algorithms benefitted from avoiding bias present in human forecasting, which attracted global interest from hedge funds, trading firms, and government agencies eager to integrate its capabilities for commercial use.
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Analysis
M12: M12 is the venture capital arm of Microsoft focused on funding innovative AI and technology companies. It joined Radical Ventures and other investors in backing Mantic's seed round. M12's participation underscores corporate interest in specialized AI forecasting tools. Mantic: Mantic is a London-based artificial intelligence startup that develops specialized forecasting systems by fine-tuning frontier AI models from other labs and testing them against historical data. Co-founded in 2024 by Toby Shevlane and Ben Day, the company focuses on improving predictive accuracy for political, economic, and cultural events. Mantic raised seed funding after outperforming human forecasters in the 2026 Metaculus Cup tournament. Microsoft: Microsoft is a global technology company that operates the M12 venture fund to invest in early-stage AI and technology startups. M12 participated in Mantic's seed round as one of several backers. This involvement aligns with Microsoft's broader engagement in cutting-edge AI applications. Toby Shevlane: Toby Shevlane is the CEO and co-founder of Mantic, which he started in 2024 after leaving his role as a research scientist at Google DeepMind. His prior work on global events relevant to AI inspired the company's focus on predictive systems. Shevlane has highlighted Mantic's edge in avoiding human biases during forecasting competitions. Radical Ventures: Radical Ventures is a venture capital firm that led Mantic's seed funding round and whose partner Aaron Rosenberg joined the startup's board. The firm supports AI companies working on advanced predictive technologies. Its investment highlights interest in Mantic's ability to deliver forecasts for commercial and governmental use. AI Performance: AI entrants outperformed human forecasters for the first time in the Metaculus Cup by sidestepping herd mentality on questions like music chart predictions and election outcomes. Investor Interest: Hedge funds, trading firms, companies, and government agencies have shown interest in integrating Mantic's AI forecasting tools for immediate commercial applications.
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