Luis Caputo expects strong economic rebound in Argentina's Q4
Summary
Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo anticipates a strong economic rebound in the fourth quarter, dismissing the likelihood of a recession despite signs of slowing growth. This optimism is supported by the International Monetary Fund's praise for Argentina’s exemplary fiscal adjustment and discipline in the face of external challenges. Additionally, recovery is expected to be driven by increased construction activity, improved mortgage lending, and rising real wages as inflation begins to moderate.
Analysis
Luis Caputo: Luis Caputo serves as Argentina’s Economy Minister in the administration of President Javier Milei. In recent weeks, he has met with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok to discuss fiscal policy and the ongoing IMF program review while highlighting Argentina’s fiscal discipline. Caputo has stated expectations for a significant economic rebound in the fourth quarter driven by construction, mortgages, and rising real wages amid moderating inflation. Argentina Government: The Argentine government under President Javier Milei has prioritized fiscal austerity and inflation reduction since taking office. It has maintained primary and financial budget surpluses in recent months and is advancing initiatives such as the Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI) to attract private-sector projects. The administration continues negotiations with multilateral lenders including the World Bank for financing supportive of infrastructure and energy-related developments. Fiscal Policy: The IMF has praised Argentina’s fiscal adjustment and discipline as exemplary amid external shocks. Economic Drivers: Recovery expectations center on construction activity, mortgage lending, and gains in real wages as inflation moderates. International Engagement: Argentina is pursuing multilateral financing and project support ahead of 2027.
Categories
macropolitics
Related sources
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- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/milei-s-money-man-shuns-foreign-markets-after-failed-bond-binge
- https://www.elterritorio.com.ar/noticias/2026/10/15/920660-argentina-sera-una-de-las-economias-con-mejor-desempeno-vaticino-caputo
- https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/caputo-sees-strong-argentina-recovery-rismisses-recession-odds.phtml
- https://www.riotimesonline.com/argentina-budget-surplus-september-2026/
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