Iran relies on al-Qaeda as a secret proxy amid US tensions: expert

by@IranIntl_En

Summary

Iran has maintained a long-standing relationship with al-Qaeda, viewing the militant group as a potential proxy to leverage in the event of an escalated conflict with the United States, according to counterterrorism expert Sara Harmouch. With Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas currently weakened, al-Qaeda serves as a strategic partner due to its ability to conduct operations while maintaining plausible deniability for Tehran. Recent intelligence indicates that Saif al-Adel, al-Qaeda's de facto leader, has been preparing attacks from Iran, which could align with Iran’s interests as the U.S. conflict intensifies, potentially allowing Iran to distance itself from the group's actions. This pragmatic alliance reflects a growing trend among these groups, where shared strategic interests are increasingly prioritized over traditional sectarian divides.

Analysis

Iran: The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocratic state in the Middle East with a government structure led by a Supreme Leader that engages in regional power projection through proxies and alliances. In the current news context, Tehran is portrayed as maintaining a long-standing, pragmatic partnership with al-Qaeda to enable deniable operations if tensions with the United States escalate. al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda is a transnational Sunni jihadist militant network focused on global attacks against Western and other perceived enemies. According to the expert cited, its de facto leader has operated from Iran for years, allowing the group to serve as a low-profile proxy that preserves plausible deniability for Tehran while advancing its own resurgence. H9 Defense: H9 Defense is a research and advisory firm focused on national security, counterterrorism, geopolitical risk, and open-source intelligence. Led by Sara Harmouch, it supplies the expert perspective quoted regarding the Iran-al-Qaeda relationship and its implications for potential escalation. Sara Harmouch: Sara Harmouch is the chief executive of H9 Defense and an adjunct professor at George Washington University specializing in counterterrorism and militant group dynamics. She provided the core analysis in the news on Iran's evolving use of al-Qaeda as a strategic asset amid weakened traditional proxies. Leadership Ties: Recent reports confirm that al-Qaeda's de facto leader Saif al-Adel has long been based in Iran under regime protection, enabling operational planning from Iranian territory. Proxy Potential: Analyses from September 2026 note that Iran's hosting of al-Qaeda figures positions the network as a viable deniable asset for Tehran if direct conflict with the US widens. Pragmatic Alliances: Counterterrorism experts highlight that shared strategic interests against the United States and its allies increasingly override sectarian differences, leading to tactical cooperation between al-Qaeda elements and Iranian-backed groups.

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