India's monsoon rainfall 12% below long-term average
Summary
Cumulative rainfall during India's June to September monsoon season is reported to be 12% below the long-term average, raising concerns about the agricultural outlook. The erratic rainfall is partly attributed to El Niño conditions, which have caused uneven distribution, further threatening the yields of several kharif crops. In response to these challenges, the Indian government has convened strategy sessions to address potential impacts as it prepares for the upcoming rabi season.
Analysis
India: India is a major agricultural economy in South Asia where the southwest monsoon is critical for supporting crop production. Recent reports highlight how the 2026 monsoon season has featured erratic rainfall patterns that are influencing harvest expectations across key farming regions. The development has prompted official assessments and planning sessions focused on mitigating effects on food production. Agriculture: The Indian government has convened strategy sessions to address rabi season challenges following the southwest monsoon's early retreat. Crop Outlook: Experts note risks to yields for several kharif crops due to the season's overall rainfall shortfall and regional variations. Climate Impact: El Niño conditions have contributed to uneven rainfall distribution during the current monsoon season.
Categories
macro
Related sources
- http://agriculture.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/markets-and-trade/monsoon-shortfall-deepens-as-el-nino-raises-crop-stress-concerns/134438551
- https://www.outlookindia.com/national/43-less-rain-what-indias-weak-monsoon-means-for-crops-and-food-prices
- https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-indias-monsoon-weakest-in-10-years-what-it-means-for-crops-rural-demand-and-consumer-stocks-4344429/
- https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/gain-report/2026/06/Monsoon%20Advances%20Amid%20Emerging%20El%20Nino%20Concerns_Mumbai_India_IN2026-0038.pdf
- https://agrospectrumindia.com/news/24/34769/acreage-holds-up-in-decades-most-distorted-monsoon-key-risks-shift-to-yields-and-winter-crop-prospects.html
- https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy/major-impact-on-kharif-crops-seen-from-monsoon-deficit-uneven-rainfall/4348326/
- https://www.unionbankofindia.bank.in/pdf/Monsoon-2026-Sowing-recovers-amid-persistent-rainfall-deficit-September-rains-hold-the-key.pdf
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/el-nio-is-set-to-further-disrupt-indias-300-billion-farm-supply-chain/articleshow/131979962.cms
- https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/india-makes-contingency-plans-weak-monsoon-threatens-some-farm-areas-2026-06-23/?outputType=chromeless
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-18/el-nino-puts-india-on-track-for-its-driest-monsoon-since-2009
- https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/drought-concerns-grow-as-govt-begins-rabi-strategy-session/