High inflation to persist globally into next year, Reuters poll shows

Summary

A recent Reuters poll indicates that high inflation is expected to persist globally well into next year, as over 500 economists express increasing concern about entrenched price pressures exacerbated by rising energy costs due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Despite the challenges, global economic activity shows resilience, bolstered by significant investment in artificial intelligence technology. The poll highlights that most central banks have been cautious with interest rate increases, yet they may need to adjust policies if inflation continues to widen. Economists have also raised their inflation forecasts for many developed economies, signaling a shift in concerns as price pressures begin to affect typically stable markets.

Analysis

Reuters: Reuters is a global news and information services organization that delivers real-time reporting and analysis across markets, politics, and economics. Its latest poll aggregates views from hundreds of economists on inflation and growth trends, underscoring its function as a key source of consensus economic data. Janet Henry: Janet Henry is the global chief economist at HSBC, where she analyzes worldwide macroeconomic conditions and policy impacts. In the current Reuters survey, she voiced heightened worries that inflation could become more entrenched due to evolving Middle East developments and broader price pressures. Seth Carpenter: Seth Carpenter is the global chief economist and head of macro research at Morgan Stanley, frequently commenting on international economic resilience and policy responses. Recent discussions from the firm highlight how AI-led investment cycles are helping sustain global growth amid energy market volatility. Economic Resilience: Global economic activity continues to demonstrate strength supported by ongoing investment in artificial intelligence and firmer activity in multiple regions despite higher energy costs. Inflation Pressures: Central banks face a more complex inflation environment as energy cost increases show signs of feeding into core price measures beyond initial expectations.

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