Goldman Sachs warns refining crisis could prolong fuel price pain through 2027

Neste: Neste is a Finnish energy company focused on refining and the production of renewable fuels alongside conventional petroleum products. The note highlights Neste among European operators that could benefit from elevated refining margins due to the stretched global system. Its European refining assets are relevant to the diesel and jet fuel supply dynamics. S-Oil: S-Oil is a South Korean refiner engaged in petroleum refining and the production of fuels and petrochemicals. Goldman lists S-Oil among Asian refiners that could experience favorable economics from the tight global refining capacity described in the note. The company processes crude into diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel products. Repsol: Repsol is a Spanish integrated energy company with refining operations across Europe. Goldman identifies Repsol as a European refiner that stands to gain from the favorable margin environment created by global capacity constraints. The company produces diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel amid the reported supply pressures. Valero: Valero is a major US-based independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products with extensive refining capacity in North America. Goldman highlights Valero as a potential beneficiary of tight global refining conditions that support strong margins and cash generation for operators with steady crude access. The firm operates in the diesel and gasoline markets central to the reported supply squeeze. Thai Oil: Thai Oil is a Thai petroleum refiner and marketer specializing in the production of refined products for domestic and regional markets. The analyst note positions Thai Oil as one of the Asian operators likely to see strong margins under sustained refining tightness. Its facilities contribute to the supply of diesel and other fuels highlighted in the crisis scenario. Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs is a global investment bank that provides financial advisory, asset management, and market research services, including detailed analysis of energy and commodity sectors. Its energy team publishes regular notes on refining dynamics, supply constraints, and fuel market outlooks. In the current news, Goldman analyst Nikhil Bhandari's note warns that stretched global refining capacity will sustain elevated diesel and gasoline prices into 2027. Helleniq Energy: Helleniq Energy is a Greek energy company with refining and marketing operations in Europe. Goldman names Helleniq Energy as a potential beneficiary of strong refining margins in the context of the ongoing global capacity shortfall. The firm supplies diesel, gasoline, and related fuels in the European market. Nikhil Bhandari: Nikhil Bhandari serves as an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs, focusing on refining operations, fuel demand, and global oil product balances. He authored the Monday note detailing scenarios where refinery utilization would need to reach unrealistic levels to meet rebounding demand and inventory rebuilding. His analysis directly frames the warning that high fuel prices may be required to restrain consumption through 2027. Marathon Petroleum: Marathon Petroleum is a leading US refiner and petroleum product marketer with significant refining assets across the United States. The Goldman note identifies Marathon Petroleum among US refiners positioned to benefit from elevated refining margins amid the prolonged capacity constraints. Its operations focus on fuels including diesel and gasoline affected by the global shortfall. Fuel Markets: Diesel and jet fuel remain at the center of the current global refined product supply squeeze. Refiner Outlook: Refiners with reliable crude access face conditions supporting strong margins and cash generation. Refining Capacity: Global refining capacity faces net losses in 2026 as closures outpace additions on an ex-China basis.