Global biofuel output to surge 70% by 2030, study finds

by@Reuters

Summary

A study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council predicts that global biofuel output is set to increase nearly 70% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, driven by countries like Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US, and the European Union adopting higher blending mandates in response to the energy crisis stemming from the Iran war. While this surge in demand for biofuels, which are often produced from food crops, could make them more competitive as fossil fuel prices rise, the authors caution that such prioritization of energy security may exacerbate issues related to food insecurity, land degradation, and water use. They emphasize that conventional first-generation biofuels could further contribute to these negative outcomes unless more sustainable feedstock production methods are adopted.

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Analysis

Chatham House: Chatham House is a London-based think tank focused on international affairs and policy analysis. It co-authored the recent study examining how the energy crisis from the Iran war is driving higher biofuel blending mandates worldwide. The organization highlights risks to food security and land use from accelerated biofuel demand. Forest Stewardship Council: The Forest Stewardship Council is a non-profit certification group promoting responsible forest management and sustainable sourcing. It partnered with Chatham House on the study warning about potential increases in land use for biofuel feedstocks. FSC's involvement underscores concerns over deforestation and environmental safeguards amid rising mandates. Policy Shifts: Countries including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US, and the European Union have proposed or adopted higher biofuel blending mandates since the start of the Iran war. Sustainability Risks: Production of first-generation biofuels from food and feed crops tends to have net negative consequences for land degradation, food security, and water use. Feedstock Alternatives: Feedstocks grown on degraded land or between crop seasons can help reduce land degradation and restore soil, though this approach is not typical for conventional biofuels.

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