Experts say Trump will influence this year's Nobel Peace Prize selection

Summary

On October 9, the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced, but experts suggest that US President Donald Trump's ongoing conflicts, particularly with Iran, will prevent him from winning this year. Nonetheless, his influence on the selection process is expected to be significant, as the Norwegian Nobel Committee is wary of the pressures that come with nominating a laureate who could face backlash from Trump, especially after last year's lobbying surrounding the award. This year's potential candidates include figures like the first US-born Pope, who advocates for dialogue against war, and groups providing humanitarian aid in conflict zones. The committee is under scrutiny to uphold values of international law and human rights amid current geopolitical tensions, positioning the award as a reflection of the challenges to the international order posed by Trump's presidency.

Analysis

ICC: The International Criminal Court is a permanent international tribunal established to prosecute individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and aggression. It has been mentioned as a potential Nobel recipient at a time when the US administration is preparing measures against the court, underscoring tensions over international justice mechanisms. ICJ: The International Court of Justice is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, tasked with settling legal disputes between states and providing advisory opinions. Experts suggest an award to the ICJ could affirm commitments to peaceful dispute resolution and national sovereignty amid global challenges to established international frameworks. Albanese: Albanese is an Italian official who has faced criticism from the US and Israel over her positions on conflicts in the Middle East, including Gaza and the West Bank. She has been floated as a possible Nobel candidate for her advocacy on human rights and international law issues. Pope Leo: Pope Leo is the first US-born pope, who has positioned himself as a global advocate for peace, dialogue, and humanitarian causes including migrant rights and criticism of war. His public statements against ongoing conflicts and work on issues like AI ethics have led experts to view him as a credible contender for the Nobel Peace Prize. Maria Ressa: Maria Ressa is a Filipino-American journalist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate known for her work on press freedom and democracy. She has publicly condemned attempts to politicize the Nobel award, emphasizing standards of integrity in the face of external influence during a recent visit to Oslo. Her comments highlight concerns over the award's independence in the current international climate. Donald Trump: Donald Trump is the President of the United States, whose foreign policy decisions and reported lobbying efforts around the Nobel Peace Prize have drawn international attention. In the context of this year's award, experts note his ongoing conflict with Iran and past pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee as factors the selection body must navigate. His influence is seen as shaping considerations for candidates who may face US scrutiny. Karim Haggag: Karim Haggag is the director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, offering insights into the broader leadership role of figures like the Pope in global affairs. His remarks highlight the potential for the Nobel to recognize thought leaders advancing peace beyond traditional religious boundaries. Haakon Gjerloew: Haakon Gjerloew is the acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, providing analysis on the Nobel selection process and its geopolitical context. He has commented on how prior lobbying efforts may influence the committee's deliberations to prioritize resilient choices this year. Nobel Peace Prize: The Nobel Peace Prize is an annual award administered by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo to recognize efforts toward peace, international cooperation, and human rights. This year's selection process is unfolding amid discussions of potential US presidential influence, following last year's award and subsequent events. The committee is evaluating choices that balance recognition of challengers to prevailing policies with the need to avoid undue external pressure. Oeivind Stenersen: Oeivind Stenersen is a historian specializing in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize. He has noted the committee's pressure to defend liberal democracy and international law in response to current challenges to the global order. Committee Pressures: The Norwegian Nobel Committee is considering the potential impact of US presidential influence when selecting this year's recipient, drawing lessons from the previous award cycle. International Order: Experts indicate the award may serve to bolster institutions and principles of international law amid ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the United States.

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