Ethiopian government forces advance on Tigray capital amid renewed fighting

Summary

Renewed fighting has erupted in northern Ethiopia, with federal troops clashing against a rebel alliance led by Tigrayan forces, escalating tensions in a region already ravaged by interconnected conflicts. This resurgence of violence recalls the devastating civil war from 2020 to 2022, but with a critical twist: Ethiopia and Eritrea, once aligned, now find themselves on opposite sides following the breakdown of diplomatic ties. The current conflict risks spilling over into other areas given the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the Horn of Africa, particularly as both nations are intertwined with the ongoing power struggle in Sudan and the geopolitical dynamics introduced by the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Analysis

Sudan: Sudan is a country in northeastern Africa experiencing prolonged internal conflict between its military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Its civil war has drawn in external actors including Eritrea and Egypt, with reports of Tigrayan forces fighting alongside Sudan's army and meetings in Khartoum contributing to the formation of the Ethiopian rebel alliance. Eritrea: Eritrea is a nation in the Horn of Africa whose government maintains strict control over its territory and foreign relations. It is accused by Ethiopia of supporting the current Tigrayan rebel alliance by granting access to its coast and denying diplomatic ties after Addis Ababa closed its embassy in Asmara, reversing its alignment from the prior civil war. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is a Gulf monarchy that pursues influence through alliances and investments across the Middle East and Africa. It maintains broad alignments with Sudan’s military, Egypt, and Eritrea, countering Emirati activities in Yemen and the Horn of Africa that Riyadh views as threats to its security and regional interests. Ethiopian government: The Ethiopian government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, directs federal military operations and national policy from Addis Ababa. In the current conflict, it is engaged in fighting against a rebel alliance including Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia, amid accusations of foreign backing for the rebels. Diplomatic tensions have escalated with Eritrea following the closure of its embassy in Asmara. United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates is a Gulf federation that extends its reach through economic investments, diplomatic deals, and security ties in Africa and the Middle East. It is a backer of the Ethiopian government and has been accused of supporting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, while forging arrangements with Somaliland and Puntland that could indirectly aid Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea. Tigray People's Liberation Front: The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is a political and military organization representing Tigrayan interests that previously governed Ethiopia's Tigray region. It now heads a rebel alliance opposing federal forces in renewed clashes in northern Ethiopia, echoing its central role in the 2020-2022 civil war. The group benefits from alleged external support routes through Eritrea in the present fighting. International Committee of the Red Cross: The International Committee of the Red Cross is a neutral humanitarian organization that provides aid, evacuates civilians, and facilitates dialogue in armed conflicts worldwide. It has been active in Ethiopia's Tigray region, conducting convoys to move people from conflict zones like Mekelle to safer areas in Afar as recently as late September 2026. Gulf Rivalries: The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has extended into the Horn of Africa through competing investments and alliances, influencing positions toward Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan. Shifting Alliances: Ethiopia and Eritrea, which fought each other from 1998 to 2000 and later aligned during the 2020-2022 civil war, now stand on opposing sides in the renewed Tigray conflict. Interconnected Conflicts: The fighting in Ethiopia intersects with Sudan's ongoing power struggle and Yemen's conflict involving the Houthis, creating risks of spillover across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea trade routes.

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