El Niño-driven drought raises famine risk in Sudan

Summary

Sudan is facing a new famine risk as drought, driven by El Niño, severely impacts agriculture in a country still reeling from over three years of civil war. While there was hope for improved harvests due to a lull in fighting, the drought has delivered the lowest rainfall in decades across key agricultural regions, exacerbating existing food insecurity. Currently, the UN reports that around 5.1 million people are experiencing severe hunger, a situation that is expected to worsen as the drought continues. Aid efforts are also stretched thin, with humanitarian organizations struggling to meet the needs of those displaced by conflict while addressing the catastrophic effects of the weather on crop production.

Analysis

Carl Skau: Carl Skau is the acting executive director of the UN World Food Programme, responsible for global humanitarian food assistance strategy and field oversight. He recently visited Darfur and described the dual decline in aid access and local harvests as a recipe for disaster in Sudan. Skau has emphasized the need for additional support to address drought-compounded hunger. Adam Rojal: Adam Rojal is the spokesman for the General Coordination of IDPs and Refugee Camps in Sudan, representing displaced populations in camps. He noted that hunger is now a primary driver of movement rather than direct fighting. Rojal advocates for support in overcrowded displacement sites like Tawila. Suad Ahmed: Suad Ahmed is a teacher who has been repeatedly displaced by the war and sought food in the Tawila camp in Darfur. She shared accounts of widespread desperation among those traveling for aid. Ahmed illustrates the personal toll of the combined conflict and food shortages on civilians. Mariam Omar: Mariam Omar is a smallholder farmer in North Kordofan struggling with crop failures due to drought on her land near Um Ruwaba. She described the current season as terrible amid parched conditions affecting harvests. Omar represents the challenges faced by rural communities in rain-fed agricultural areas. Alex De Waal: Alex De Waal is a famine expert who analyzes humanitarian crises and conflict-related food insecurity, particularly in Africa. He has commented on Sudan's current situation, noting it is worse than past famines due to prolonged conflict and reduced international aid mobilization. De Waal provides context on how the combination of war and drought heightens risks compared to historical events. Esmat Qureshi: Esmat Qureshi is Sudan's Agriculture Minister, tasked with overseeing national agricultural policy and food production amid ongoing challenges. He addressed concerns about the 2026 harvest, stating it would be lower than previous years but framing the impact as manageable. Qureshi represents the government's perspective on weather and conflict effects on farming. Samuel Clendon: Samuel Clendon serves as the head of programme for the UN World Food Programme in Sudan, overseeing operations in a complex emergency environment. He has shared internal assessments on how El Niño-driven conditions are expected to increase the number of people facing severe hunger through 2027. Clendon works to stretch limited resources for food distribution in conflict zones. United Nations: The United Nations is an international organization founded to promote peace, security, and cooperation among nations, with agencies addressing global humanitarian and development challenges. In the context of Sudan, it monitors and alerts on escalating food insecurity through bodies like the IPC while coordinating responses to conflict-driven crises. The organization has highlighted how the ongoing civil war and recent drought are compounding risks of famine in affected regions. Abdelrahman Ismail: Abdelrahman Ismail leads the humanitarian aid authority for the RSF, focusing on coordination and response efforts in areas under RSF influence in Sudan. He has discussed initiatives to invite early responses to the drought and hunger risks. Ismail's role involves addressing humanitarian needs in the context of the civil war. Mohamed Abdelrahman: Mohamed Abdelrahman is a large-scale farmer and sesame trader in the Um Ruwaba area who provides financing to smallholders while managing his own operations. He estimated significant portions of land would yield no harvest this season due to drought and displacement from war. Abdelrahman offers insights into the agricultural and trading impacts in central Sudan. Sirajaldin al-Tahir: Sirajaldin al-Tahir is a farmer in North Kordofan who has experienced multiple seasons of hardship, including past famines and the current drought. He reflected on historical aid responses versus today's conditions and expressed uncertainty about the outcome of the 2026 season. His account highlights the direct effects on local agriculture and livestock. UN World Food Programme: The UN World Food Programme is the world's largest humanitarian organization focused on fighting hunger and delivering food assistance in emergencies and development settings. It is actively responding to Sudan's food crisis by prioritizing aid to the most vulnerable populations amid war and drought, though it reports constraints in reaching all those in need. WFP leadership has noted the combined impact of conflict and weather on harvest failures and rising hunger. Climate Impact: El Niño has induced drought conditions across Sudan that are severely damaging rain-fed crops and livestock in key agricultural regions. Humanitarian Response: Aid efforts in Sudan are being stretched thin as organizations work to support populations affected by both ongoing conflict and the latest drought. Conflict and Displacement: The civil war continues to limit access to farmland and markets while driving internal displacement that compounds food insecurity in affected areas.

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