ECB's Pereira notes current inflation levels are below 2022 highs
Summary
ECB’s Pereira said current headline and core inflation are well below the levels reached during the 2022 energy shock. Euro-area inflation nevertheless remained elevated in 2026, with headline inflation at 3.2% and core inflation at 2.4% in August.
Analysis
Pereira: Álvaro Santos Pereira is the Governor of the Bank of Portugal and a member of the ECB Governing Council, where he participates in eurozone monetary policy decisions. As a Portuguese central banker, he offers perspectives on inflation dynamics and risks from energy prices. His remarks emphasize that current inflation and core measures are notably lower than during the 2022 energy shock, aiding the ECB's data-dependent approach. European Central Bank: The European Central Bank is the central institution responsible for monetary policy across the eurozone, with a primary mandate to maintain price stability. It sets key interest rates, conducts economic analysis, and oversees banking supervision for member states. Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira's recent comments on inflation levels directly reflect the ECB's ongoing assessment of price developments relative to prior shocks. • The 2022 energy shock drove euro-area inflation to a record 10.6% in October 2022. • In August 2026, euro-area headline HICP inflation was 3.2%, while inflation excluding energy and food was 2.4%. • The recent pickup has been driven primarily by energy prices, rather than broad-based core inflation pressure. • ECB September projections put average 2026 headline inflation at 3.0% and core inflation at 2.5%. • The ECB expects inflation to moderate toward 2% as the energy shock fades, but energy-price risks remain significant.
Categories
predictionspredictions:politicsmacropolitics
Related sources
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202605.en.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202606.en.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202606.mt.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202604.en.html
- https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260928~a875675544.en.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg260709~0e7f8241c9.en.html
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/statistics_explained/eurostatistics/visualisation.html
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/ecbu/eb202603.en.pdf
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/ecbu/eb202605.en.pdf
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202602.en.html
- https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2026/795851/ECTI_ATA(2026)795851_EN.pdf
- https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2026/779848/ECTI_BRI(2026)779848_EN.pdf
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202606_eurosystemstaff~a495110f8d.en.html