China's coking coal supply squeeze to persist into next year
Summary
China's coking coal supply squeeze is expected to continue into next year, sustaining strong import demand as domestic output efforts begin to cool prices. This situation arises from earlier mine incidents that have constrained supply, while increased shipments from countries such as Mongolia, Australia, and Russia are attempting to alleviate the domestic shortfall but are not entirely bridging the gap. As local output gradually recovers, it is starting to moderate the high coking coal prices, even as the market remains tight.
Analysis
China: China is the world's largest consumer of coking coal, driven by its dominant position in global steel production. The country is currently experiencing a supply squeeze in its domestic coking coal market stemming from production disruptions and regulatory responses. This situation is sustaining elevated import needs even as local output revival measures begin to ease some price pressures. Supply Outlook: China's coking coal supply constraints triggered by earlier mine incidents are projected to extend into the following year amid gradual domestic recovery. Import Dynamics: Increased shipments from suppliers including Mongolia, Australia, and Russia are helping address the domestic shortfall without fully closing the gap. Price Influence: Efforts to boost local output are beginning to moderate coking coal prices despite the ongoing market tightness.
Categories
macro
Related sources
- https://procurementinstitute.io/intel/shanxi-coking-coal-crackdown-squeezes-seaborne-premium-window
- https://en.sxcoal.com/hub/cokingcoal
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/chinese-coking-coal-futures-soar-as-shanxi-supply-crunch-worsens
- https://en.sxcoal.com/news/detail/2069991259145625601
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-31/china-coking-coal-heads-for-record-monthly-gain-on-supply-crunch
- https://www.kpler.com/blog/three-shocks-are-resetting-coals-winter-ceiling
- https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/65012/shanxi-mine-disruptions-push-chinas-coking-coal-imports-higher
- https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade
- https://www.mysteel.net/h/coal-and-coke/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/china-s-coking-coal-supply-squeeze-seen-lingering-into-2027
- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-coking-coal-imports-set-rise-shanxi-mine-disaster-hits-supply-traders-say-2026-06-19/
- https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/061726-ferrous-week-chinas-mongolian-coking-coal-demand-seen-higher-in-2026-on-blending-supply-curbs