China unlikely to oppose US or Israeli efforts to topple Iran

by@IranIntl_En

Summary

China expressed a lack of enthusiasm for the Islamic Republic, indicating it would likely allow U.S. or Israeli initiatives aimed at destabilizing Iran, as long as these actions did not clearly contravene international norms. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that China's skepticism towards Iran's clerical regime is similar to its complex relationship with North Korea. During the 2026 war, while Beijing did not oppose U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, it condemned the attack on Iran's supreme leader as a violation of international law. This stance reflects China's historical balancing act in the region, where it aims to maintain stable relations with the U.S. and other powers while avoiding deep entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts.

Analysis

China: China is a major global power that maintains diplomatic and economic relations with countries worldwide while pursuing its own strategic interests. In this news, Beijing is portrayed as wary of Iran's clerical leadership and unlikely to block external efforts to change the regime as long as international norms are respected. Tong Zhao: Tong Zhao is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Chinese foreign policy and international security issues. He shared analysis with Iran International indicating China's distaste for Iran's government and its restrained response to the 2026 conflict. Kambiz Tavana: Kambiz Tavana is a journalist with Iran International who conducts interviews on Middle East and global affairs. He elicited detailed commentary from Tong Zhao on China's position toward potential regime change in Iran. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a prominent think tank that conducts research and analysis on international affairs, security, and global governance. Senior fellow Tong Zhao drew on the organization's expertise to provide insights into China's foreign policy views on Iran. Geopolitics: China has historically balanced ties with Iran against its broader interests in maintaining stable relations with the United States and other powers. Middle East Policy: Beijing has shown reluctance to become deeply entangled in Middle East conflicts when they risk straining its global diplomatic standing.

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