Analysts warn Meta's Muse could threaten Apple's $10B revenue stream

by@CNBC

Summary

Meta's newly launched consumer artificial intelligence agent, Muse, is poised to disrupt Apple's revenue streams by potentially targeting its application exchange platform. Analysts from Needham estimate that if 20% of Apple's App Store revenue, projected to be $123 billion in fiscal year 2026, shifts to Meta's zero-fee Muse Connectors platform, Apple could face a revenue decline of up to $10 billion. This shift could also lead to developer defections from Apple's ecosystem, as demonstrated by Muse's rapid acquisition of over 1,500 developer applications shortly after its launch. As AI agents like Muse gain traction in managing subscriptions—helping consumers cancel unused services—app and service providers could experience increased churn pressures, particularly as U.S. adults are reported to waste an average of $252 annually on neglected subscriptions.

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$AAPL$META

Analysis

Meta: Meta Platforms develops social media and consumer technology products and has introduced Muse as a new AI agent aimed at consumers. The agent’s Connectors platform is positioned in the news as a potential competitor to Apple’s App Store by offering zero-fee connections that could attract developers and shift subscription management away from existing ecosystems. Apple: Apple Inc. is a major technology company that operates the App Store and generates significant revenue from services including app subscriptions and developer fees. Its application ecosystem is highlighted in the news as a potential target for disintermediation by AI agents that could bypass traditional payment flows and reduce developer reliance on the platform. Tal Liani: Tal Liani is an equity analyst at Bank of America covering technology stocks. He discussed the broader impact of AI subscription-auditing agents on consumer and business churn in the context of emerging tools like Muse. Laura Martin: Laura Martin is an equity analyst at Needham & Company covering technology and internet sectors. She authored a note examining how Meta’s Muse could affect Apple’s services revenue through reduced App Store transactions and developer incentives. AI Agent Expansion: Meta recently launched its Muse Connectors platform to enable direct connections between AI agents and services, drawing immediate developer interest as an alternative to traditional app marketplaces. Subscription Management Trends: AI agents are increasingly positioned to review and cancel underused online subscriptions on behalf of users, potentially raising churn pressures for app and service providers across ecosystems.

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